Los precios del petróleo se recuperaron al cierre de la jornada de ayer luego de una caída, por temores de un posible ingreso de tropas rusas en Ucrania.
En Londres el barril de Brent del mar del Norte para entrega en enero cerró en ligera alza de 0,27% a 82,87 dólares, luego de perder hasta 1,18% en sesión.
En tanto el WTI para entrega en diciembre ganó 0,30% a 81,59 dólares en Nueva York.
Esta información, servida por la agencia internacional AFP, refiere que según Bloomberg, el gobierno estadounidense dejó saber entre varios dirigentes europeos su preocupación sobre el envío de tropas rusas a la frontera con Ucrania, lo que podría presagiar una operación militar de envergadura.
“Vemos aumentar los riesgos geopolíticos, lo cual sostiene el precio del petróleo”, resumió Phil Flynn, de Price Futures Group.
Ucrania ha estado atrapada en una guerra mortal con los separatistas pro-Moscú en el este desde 2014, cuando Rusia se apoderó de la península de Crimea.
OPEP a la baja
Más temprano, la Organización de Países Exportadores de Petróleo (OPEP) habia revisado a la baja sus previsiones de crecimiento en la demanda mundial del crudo en 2021, por efecto de la ralentización de la recuperación económica durante el tercer trimestre en China e India.
En su informe mensual, la OPEP calcula que la demanda mundial aumentará en 5,7 millones de barriles por día (mbd) durante todo 2021, menor que el pronosticado en octubre (5,82 mbd) y septiembre (5,96 mbd). Así, el consumo mundial de petróleo alcanzaría a los 96,4 mbd en 2021, de acuerdo a la OPEP.
“Estas revisiones se deben sobre todo a una demanda menor de lo esperado por parte de China e India en el tercer trimestre de 2021”, explica la organización.
El PIB de China creció un 4,9% durante el tercer trimestre, contra el 7,9% en el segundo. En octubre, el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) revisó a la baja sus pronósticos de expansión de ese país, motor del crecimiento mundial, fijándolo en 8% durante el año (-0,1%).
Pronóstico
Para 2022, la OPEP calcula que la demanda mundial aumentará a 100,6 mbd, solamente 500.000 más que el consumido en 2019, antes de declararse la pandemia de covid-19.
La OPEP mantuvo por su parte su previsión de crecimiento de la demanda global para 2022, con un aumento de 4,2 mbd.
En cuanto a su producción, el cártel estima que llegó a 27,3 mbd en octubre, o sea, una subida de 217.000 barriles diarios respecto a septiembre.
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