Cándida Acosta
Santo Domingo, RD.
La decisión de la Unión Europea de no comprar petróleo ruso agudizará las relaciones geopolíticas en esos mercados, por lo que frente a esa nueva situación los economistas Miguel Collado Di Franco y Antonio Ciriaco Cruz coinciden que el precio del crudo seguirá alto en 2023. No obstante, explican distintas opiniones sobre su impacto en la economía dominicana.
Para el economista y vicepresidente ejecutivo del Centro Regional de Estrategias Económicas (CREES), Miguel Collado Di Franco, esa medida de la UE no tendrá mayores impactos, porque Rusia seguirá vendiendo su petróleo a China, India y a otros países y el margen para Rusia seguirá siendo alto.
Explica Di Franco que el límite en el precio se fija en un momento en el cual el precio del petróleo Ural es más bajo que el precio, “cap”, impuesto como límite para que terceros países puedan comprarlo y ser transportado por vía marítima con su debido seguro.
Rusia reaccionará con protestas, pero seguirá haciendo negocios con su petróleo. Serían otros factores, como la apertura de China los que puedan incrementar más el precio del crudo, que deberá mantenerse alto en 2023. En adición, afirma que existen riesgos en el gas natural, el diésel y el precio del carbón. Las materias primas energéticas tendrán precios altos en 2023, puntualiza.
“La medida es otro elemento que demuestra, sí, la falta de interés de los países occidentales de que se establezca alguna negociación para detener el conflicto. Mientras esto suceda y no se ajuste la producción que está dejando de fluir de Ucrania, continuará el impacto de los “commodities” afectados desde el conflicto”, indicó.
Ciriaco Cruz
El conflicto de Rusia con Ucrania va a “tensar” el precio del petróleo, el mercado de los combustibles, del gas natural y de otras materias primas y eso repercutirá la economía dominicana, ya que el 75% de la materia energética de República Dominicana está compuesta por petróleo y gas natural, en opinión del vicedecano de Economía de la UASD, Antonio Ciriaco Cruz.
Recuerda que Rusia tiene un fuerte peso mundial en petróleo y gas natural. “Claramente esto puede desatar en República Dominicana un proceso de reversión de los niveles de inflación que había venido cediendo en los últimos meses”. Sostuvo que la reducción de la inflación puede que no se deba a la política monetaria restrictiva, sino a que los precios del petróleo han venido bajando, debido a que el conflicto ruso está un poco calmado.
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